Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on November 10?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 63¢ · $391 held · ends Nov 10

Yes63¢No37¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$390.7

Combined PnL

$90.05

Smart Money Entry

40.7¢ → 62.5¢

+53% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes63%

No38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$233.97

Total Shares487

Combined PnL+$84.14

No4 traders

Total Value$47.06

Total Shares91

Combined PnL+$5.91

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+19 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Yesavg 42.3¢	$104.33	$155.93	+$51.6	25% 70-207 (277)
PO PoligarchARB<$100	Yesavg 50.4¢	$115.53	$109.66	-$5.87	81% 210-50 (260)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50.4¢	$58.75	$60.55	+$1.81
└ No leg	Noavg 55.5¢	$56.78	$49.1	-$7.68
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$44.22	$70.94	+$26.72	4% 8-216 (224)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 39.4¢	$18.72	$27.05	+$8.33	42% 117-164 (281)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 43¢	$12.58	$12.28	-$0.29	47% 187-207 (394)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 61.6¢	$9.76	$7.12	-$2.64	63% 1383-820 (2203)
12 123987456<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.97	$5	+$4.03	86% 18-3 (21)
Lucerys<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.32	$2.1	+$1.78	52% 883-824 (1707)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 56¢	$14.98	$0.62	+$0.51	56% 139-108 (247)

241532532432

Yes

Invested

$104.33

Value

$155.93

PnL

+$51.6

Record

25%

70-207 (277)

PoligarchARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$115.53

Value

$109.66

PnL

-$5.87

Record

81%

210-50 (260)

Both legs:

Invested

$44.22

Value

$70.94

PnL

+$26.72

Record

8-216 (224)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$18.72

Value

$27.05

PnL

+$8.33

Record

42%

117-164 (281)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$12.58

Value

$12.28

PnL

-$0.29

Record

47%

187-207 (394)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$9.76

Value

$7.12

PnL

-$2.64

Record

63%

1383-820 (2203)

123987456<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.97

Value

PnL

+$4.03

Record

86%

18-3 (21)

Lucerys<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.32

Value

$2.1

PnL

+$1.78

Record

52%

883-824 (1707)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$14.98

Value

$0.62

PnL

+$0.51

Record

56%

139-108 (247)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 63%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+19 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.