Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on November 10?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 88¢ · $447 held · ends Nov 10

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$446.58

Combined PnL

-$33.85

Smart Money Entry

95.1¢ → 87.8¢

-8% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$444.19

Total Shares485

Combined PnL-$34.99

Yes1 trader

Total Value$2.29

Total Shares20

Combined PnL+$1.14

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 96¢	$387.79	$347.9	-$31.17	55% 29-24 (53)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 92.7¢	$81.53	$58.67	-$2.7	53% 86-75 (161)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 92.5¢	$13.98	$13.27	-$0.71	77% 44-13 (57)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 92.1¢	$9.73	$9.34	-$0.39	68% 43-20 (63)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 88.4¢	$8.84	$8.85	-$0.04	42% 16-22 (38)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 87.2¢	$4.37	$4.4	+$0.03	44% 46-59 (105)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.7¢	$1.15	$2.29	+$1.14	— 0-14 (14)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 95¢	$1.78	$1.77	-$0.01	— 8-2 (10)

241532532432

Invested

$387.79

Value

$347.9

PnL

-$31.17

Record

55%

29-24 (53)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$81.53

Value

$58.67

PnL

-$2.7

Record

53%

86-75 (161)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$13.98

Value

$13.27

PnL

-$0.71

Record

77%

44-13 (57)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$9.73

Value

$9.34

PnL

-$0.39

Record

68%

43-20 (63)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$8.84

Value

$8.85

PnL

-$0.04

Record

42%

16-22 (38)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$4.37

Value

$4.4

PnL

+$0.03

Record

44%

46-59 (105)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.15

Value

$2.29

PnL

+$1.14

Record

—

0-14 (14)

123987456<$100

Invested

$1.78

Value

$1.77

PnL

-$0.01

Record

—

8-2 (10)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.2%

87.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.