Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on November 1?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 64¢ · $644 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$643.64
$175.9
73.4¢ → 64¢
-13% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 64%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 14.1¢ | $695.4 | $285.11 | +$187.07 | 50% 650-642 (1292) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 73.7¢ | $150.48 | $136.06 | -$11.85 | 20% 318-1310 (1628) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 73.7¢ | $107.78 | $87.78 | -$20.09 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 27.4¢ | $40.04 | $48.28 | +$8.24 | |
24 241532532432 | Noavg 73.5¢ | $134.09 | $133.29 | -$0.8 | 59% 1828-1274 (3102) |
 fildoroCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $68.06 | $83.19 | +$7.56 | 62% 1444-892 (2336) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 73¢ | $110.96 | $5.98 | -$17.93 | 53% 6559-5774 (12333) |
Invested
$695.4
Value
$285.11
PnL
+$187.07
Record
50%
650-642 (1292)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$150.48
Value
$136.06
PnL
-$11.85
Record
20%
318-1310 (1628)
Both legs:
Invested
$134.09
Value
$133.29
PnL
-$0.8
Record
59%
1828-1274 (3102)
fildoroCTR<$100Invested
$68.06
Value
$83.19
PnL
+$7.56
Record
62%
1444-892 (2336)
Invested
$110.96
Value
$5.98
PnL
-$17.93
Record
53%
6559-5774 (12333)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.