Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 18°C on October 31?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 97¢ · $780 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$779.79
$129.99
86.1¢ → 97.5¢
+13% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 84.4¢ | $281.08 | $325.72 | +$44.64 | 47% 647-728 (1375) |
HE hello.67 | Noavg 87¢ | $245.49 | $276.15 | +$30.66 | 50% 1774-1756 (3530) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.5¢ | $29.24 | $77.72 | +$48.48 | 59% 1743-1208 (2951) |
GH ghorrock | Noavg 84.5¢ | $113.47 | $41.44 | +$4.8 | 57% 13602-10422 (24024) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 93.1¢ | $139.47 | $29.4 | -$0.1 | 53% 6481-5684 (12165) |
TY Tysha<$100 | Noavg 92.8¢ | $27.86 | $29.36 | +$1.5 | 73% 8252-3127 (11379) |
Invested
$281.08
Value
$325.72
PnL
+$44.64
Record
47%
647-728 (1375)
Invested
$245.49
Value
$276.15
PnL
+$30.66
Record
50%
1774-1756 (3530)
Invested
$29.24
Value
$77.72
PnL
+$48.48
Record
59%
1743-1208 (2951)
Invested
$113.47
Value
$41.44
PnL
+$4.8
Record
57%
13602-10422 (24024)
Invested
$139.47
Value
$29.4
PnL
-$0.1
Record
53%
6481-5684 (12165)
Invested
$27.86
Value
$29.36
PnL
+$1.5
Record
73%
8252-3127 (11379)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.