Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (66%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 16°C on October 31?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 34¢ · $477 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
1 arb excluded
$477.22
-$8.15
38¢ → 34¢
-10% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 34%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 58.2¢ | $412.35 | $282.35 | -$42 | 21% 295-1083 (1378) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 58.2¢ | $161.09 | $177.16 | +$16.08 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 44.8¢ | $123.9 | $105.19 | -$58.08 | |
24 241532532432CTR | Yesavg 38.7¢ | $130.75 | $121.51 | -$9.23 | 59% 1714-1182 (2896) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $44.86 | $35.97 | +$0.07 | 57% 13427-10262 (23689) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 36.7¢ | $28.02 | $27.47 | -$0.55 | 50% 1744-1729 (3473) |
 fildoroCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32¢ | $8.35 | $9.92 | +$1.57 | 62% 1438-883 (2321) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$412.35
Value
$282.35
PnL
-$42
Record
21%
295-1083 (1378)
Both legs:
Invested
$130.75
Value
$121.51
PnL
-$9.23
Record
59%
1714-1182 (2896)
Invested
$44.86
Value
$35.97
PnL
+$0.07
Record
57%
13427-10262 (23689)
Invested
$28.02
Value
$27.47
PnL
-$0.55
Record
50%
1744-1729 (3473)
fildoroCTR<$100Invested
$8.35
Value
$9.92
PnL
+$1.57
Record
62%
1438-883 (2321)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.