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Yes
balthazar<$100NoNoNoYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 20°C on October 30?
Resolved No. 40% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$9
Smart Money Signal
Yes
2 of 5 top traders (40%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares320
Combined PnL-$9
No3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 40%No — 60%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $9 | — | -$9 | 59% 1743-1208 (2951) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 98.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 20981-13343 (34324) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 92.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 6481-5684 (12165) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 13602-10422 (24024) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 32% 4404-9461 (13865) |
24
241532532432CTR<$100Invested
$9
Value
—
PnL
-$9
Record
59%
1743-1208 (2951)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
20981-13343 (34324)
CB
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
6481-5684 (12165)
GH
ghorrock<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
13602-10422 (24024)
0X
0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
4404-9461 (13865)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x102c0e8b...072122
Slug
highest-temperature-in-seoul-on-october-30-2026-20c