Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (55%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 19°C on October 30?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 45¢ · $263 held · ends Oct 30

Yes45¢No55¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$262.95

Combined PnL

-$33.47

Smart Money Entry

36.1¢ → 45¢

+25% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 55%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes45%

No55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$239.44

Total Shares721

Combined PnL-$35.97

No2 traders

Total Value$23.51

Total Shares31

Combined PnL+$2.5

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 35.9¢	$265.93	$229.44	-$36.49	51% 587-559 (1146)
TY Tysha<$100	Noavg 60¢	$15	$17.5	+$2.5	73% 8239-3103 (11342)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 45¢	$9.48	$10	+$0.53	50% 1654-1642 (3296)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 76¢	$6.49	$6.01	-$0	26% 281-787 (1068)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$265.93

Value

$229.44

PnL

-$36.49

Record

51%

587-559 (1146)

Tysha<$100

Invested

$15

Value

$17.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

73%

8239-3103 (11342)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.48

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.53

Record

50%

1654-1642 (3296)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$6.49

Value

$6.01

PnL

-$0

Record

26%

281-787 (1068)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 45%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 55%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.2%

45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$111.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

211.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.