Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 18°C on October 30?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
1 arb excluded
$1.0K
-$99.83
60¢ → 100¢
+67% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 58.6¢ | $392.76 | $385.84 | -$3.09 | 21% 295-1083 (1378) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 58.6¢ | $225.93 | $289.39 | +$63.21 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 42.2¢ | $162.84 | $96.45 | -$66.31 | |
24 241532532432 | Noavg 64.7¢ | $247.39 | $277.68 | +$30.29 | 59% 1714-1182 (2896) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 44.7¢ | $346.68 | $186.03 | -$160.65 | 51% 623-608 (1231) |
 balthazar | Noavg 52.9¢ | $123.83 | $153.46 | +$29.63 | 61% 20926-13319 (34245) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29.7¢ | $27.05 | $7.15 | +$3.78 | 57% 13427-10262 (23689) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26.4¢ | $9.63 | $6.75 | -$2.88 | 53% 6458-5657 (12115) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$392.76
Value
$385.84
PnL
-$3.09
Record
21%
295-1083 (1378)
Both legs:
Invested
$247.39
Value
$277.68
PnL
+$30.29
Record
59%
1714-1182 (2896)
Invested
$346.68
Value
$186.03
PnL
-$160.65
Record
51%
623-608 (1231)
balthazarInvested
$123.83
Value
$153.46
PnL
+$29.63
Record
61%
20926-13319 (34245)
Invested
$27.05
Value
$7.15
PnL
+$3.78
Record
57%
13427-10262 (23689)
Invested
$9.63
Value
$6.75
PnL
-$2.88
Record
53%
6458-5657 (12115)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.