Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 14°C on October 29?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 87¢ · $452 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$451.58
-$18.6
81.7¢ → 87.2¢
+7% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 79.8¢ | $338.05 | $310.48 | -$27.56 | 60% 1652-1111 (2763) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 81.1¢ | $74.8 | $84.44 | +$9.64 | 61% 20778-13190 (33968) |
PO poposub<$100 | Noavg 96.5¢ | $49.66 | $46.34 | -$3.06 | 46% 2051-2444 (4495) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 79.5¢ | $32.28 | $7.02 | +$3.91 | 57% 13319-10177 (23496) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 74.7¢ | $55.94 | $2.47 | +$3.86 | 53% 6389-5593 (11982) |
 IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24.4¢ | $6.94 | $0.83 | -$5.39 | 24% 285-919 (1204) |
Invested
$338.05
Value
$310.48
PnL
-$27.56
Record
60%
1652-1111 (2763)
balthazar<$100Invested
$74.8
Value
$84.44
PnL
+$9.64
Record
61%
20778-13190 (33968)
Invested
$49.66
Value
$46.34
PnL
-$3.06
Record
46%
2051-2444 (4495)
Invested
$32.28
Value
$7.02
PnL
+$3.91
Record
57%
13319-10177 (23496)
Invested
$55.94
Value
$2.47
PnL
+$3.86
Record
53%
6389-5593 (11982)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
$6.94
Value
$0.83
PnL
-$5.39
Record
24%
285-919 (1204)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.