Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 11°C on October 28?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 94¢ · $98 held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$97.78
-$15.53
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $51 | $50 | -$0.84 | 33% 273-556 (829) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $25.5 | $24.45 | -$1.05 | 61% 20494-12853 (33347) |
ZE zerone777<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $12 | $12.13 | +$0.13 | 41% 379-537 (916) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.4¢ | $24.96 | $11.2 | -$13.76 | 61% 1522-962 (2484) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.