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NoYesYes
balthazarCTR<$100YesNo
Lucerys<$100NoYes
Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 5°C or below on November 9?
Resolved No. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
RESOLVED
🏆
Won
Consensus Traders
7
No 33%
Total Value
$102.41
Combined PnL
-$30.43
Smart Money Signal
No
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No3 traders
Total Value$102.41
Total Shares102
Combined PnL+$0.1
Yes4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares336
Combined PnL-$30.53
No — 43%Yes — 57%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Noavg 99.9¢ | $102.31 | $102.41 | +$0.1 | 97% 59786-1869 (61655) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | -$26.27 | 46% 6652-7812 (14464) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $1.51 | — | -$4.26 | 22% 3495-12141 (15636) |
balthazarCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 30% 35522-84044 (119566) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | — | — | +$0 | 22% 657-2369 (3026) |
Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 43% 18729-24497 (43226) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 30% 2958-6849 (9807) |
1D
1DVSBSTDInvested
$102.31
Value
$102.41
PnL
+$0.1
Record
97%
59786-1869 (61655)
0X
0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
-$26.27
Record
46%
6652-7812 (14464)
LU
luciebotCTR<$100Invested
$1.51
Value
—
PnL
-$4.26
Record
22%
3495-12141 (15636)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
35522-84044 (119566)
0X
0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
22%
657-2369 (3026)
Lucerys<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
18729-24497 (43226)
12
123987456CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
2958-6849 (9807)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x9ce6cb03...8371e1
Slug
highest-temperature-in-seoul-on-november-9-2026-5corbelow