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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.

Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 15°C or higher on November 9?

Resolved No. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Yes 67%

Total Value

$100

Combined PnL

-$28.61

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$100

Total Shares100

Combined PnL+$0.1

Yes5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares316

Combined PnL-$28.71

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.9¢	$99.9	$100	+$0.1	97% 59786-1869 (61655)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yes	—	—	-$24.45	46% 6652-7812 (14464)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.2¢	$1.51	—	-$4.26	22% 3495-12141 (15636)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yes	—	—	+$0	30% 35522-84044 (119566)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179<$100	Noavg 99¢	—	—	+$0	22% 657-2369 (3026)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	—	—	+$0	43% 18729-24497 (43226)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	—	—	+$0	46% 6903-8164 (15067)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	—	—	+$0	69% 16770-7377 (24147)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	—	—	+$0	50% 9346-9412 (18758)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.5¢	—	—	+$0	30% 2958-6849 (9807)

Invested

$99.9

Value

$100

PnL

+$0.1

Record

97%

59786-1869 (61655)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

-$24.45

Record

46%

6652-7812 (14464)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$1.51

Value

—

PnL

-$4.26

Record

22%

3495-12141 (15636)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

35522-84044 (119566)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

22%

657-2369 (3026)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

18729-24497 (43226)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

6903-8164 (15067)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

69%

16770-7377 (24147)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

9346-9412 (18758)

123987456CTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

2958-6849 (9807)

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x51ae77dc...b7f899

Slug

highest-temperature-in-seoul-on-november-9-2026-15corhigher

Traders in this Market

1DVSBSTD

No — $100

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293

Yes — $0

luciebot

Yes — $0

balthazar

Yes — $0

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179

No — $0

Lucerys

Yes — $0

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

No — $0

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023

No — $0

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493

No — $0

123987456

Yes — $0

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