Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (59%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 9°C on November 8?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 42¢ · $574 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 50%
1 arb excluded
$574.24
-$0.8
Research grade
NeutralYes at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-25 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100 | Noavg 62.4¢ | $422.76 | $509.85 | +$87.09 | 37% 903-1557 (2460) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 29.1¢ | $200.88 | $311.13 | +$110.25 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 62.4¢ | $221.88 | $198.72 | -$23.16 | |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 33.1¢ | $26.78 | $36.42 | +$1.21 | 32% 2247-4752 (6999) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Yesavg 43.7¢ | $18.7 | $17.52 | -$1.17 | 54% 10730-9241 (19971) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 68.1¢ | $11.47 | $7.62 | -$0.86 | 53% 8691-7793 (16484) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $22.7 | $2.83 | +$0.02 | 58% 21689-15792 (37481) |
Invested
$422.76
Value
$509.85
PnL
+$87.09
Record
37%
903-1557 (2460)
Both legs:
Invested
$26.78
Value
$36.42
PnL
+$1.21
Record
32%
2247-4752 (6999)
Invested
$18.7
Value
$17.52
PnL
-$1.17
Record
54%
10730-9241 (19971)
Invested
$11.47
Value
$7.62
PnL
-$0.86
Record
53%
8691-7793 (16484)
Invested
$22.7
Value
$2.83
PnL
+$0.02
Record
58%
21689-15792 (37481)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.