Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 7°C on November 8?

1 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (8%) · Yes at 50¢ · $268 held · ends Nov 8

Yes50¢No50¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 8%

Total Value

$268.06

Combined PnL

-$105.64

Research grade

NeutralYes at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 13 top traders (8%)11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes50%

No50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$100.15

Total Shares589

Combined PnL-$49.5

No12 traders

Total Value$167.42

Total Shares311

Combined PnL-$56.14

Yes — 8%No — 92%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 25.4¢	$149.65	$100.15	-$49.5	37% 913-1562 (2475)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 79.8¢	$47.79	$35.34	-$10.95	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
Lucerys	Noavg 75.5¢	$174.21	$22.52	-$11.09	45% 18006-22281 (40287)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 52.5¢	$21.95	$21.75	-$0.2	28% 3048-7956 (11004)
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Noavg 89¢	$35.88	$21.57	-$14.31	56% 829-641 (1470)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 67.3¢	$32.98	$17.05	-$3.29	47% 2105-2397 (4502)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 78.2¢	$39.69	$11.64	-$6.8	16% 4635-23687 (28322)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 70.2¢	$22.11	$10.61	-$3.18	44% 2445-3051 (5496)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 67.6¢	$18.78	$8.66	-$1.77	38% 2430-3890 (6320)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 61.6¢	$6.27	$5.29	-$0.98	39% 1311-2070 (3381)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 52¢	$5.29	$5.19	-$0.1	53% 4656-4095 (8751)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 67.6¢	$6.9	$5.05	-$1.85	39% 1314-2061 (3375)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 78.2¢	$12.69	$2.76	-$1.63	36% 1206-2165 (3371)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$149.65

Value

$100.15

PnL

-$49.5

Record

37%

913-1562 (2475)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$47.79

Value

$35.34

PnL

-$10.95

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

Lucerys

Invested

$174.21

Value

$22.52

PnL

-$11.09

Record

45%

18006-22281 (40287)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$21.95

Value

$21.75

PnL

-$0.2

Record

28%

3048-7956 (11004)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Invested

$35.88

Value

$21.57

PnL

-$14.31

Record

56%

829-641 (1470)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$32.98

Value

$17.05

PnL

-$3.29

Record

47%

2105-2397 (4502)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$39.69

Value

$11.64

PnL

-$6.8

Record

16%

4635-23687 (28322)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$22.11

Value

$10.61

PnL

-$3.18

Record

44%

2445-3051 (5496)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$18.78

Value

$8.66

PnL

-$1.77

Record

38%

2430-3890 (6320)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$6.27

Value

$5.29

PnL

-$0.98

Record

39%

1311-2070 (3381)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$5.29

Value

$5.19

PnL

-$0.1

Record

53%

4656-4095 (8751)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$6.9

Value

$5.05

PnL

-$1.85

Record

39%

1314-2061 (3375)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$12.69

Value

$2.76

PnL

-$1.63

Record

36%

1206-2165 (3371)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 50%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 13 top traders (8%)11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.2%

50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$91.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

191.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.