Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 18°C or higher on November 6?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ended Nov 6

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$1.42

Combined PnL

-$217.26

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$1.42

Total Shares2,830

Combined PnL-$217.26

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.4¢	$65.37	$0.74	-$133.81	40% 853-1286 (2139)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.17	$0.15	-$0.01	52% 31052-29024 (60076)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.8¢	$15.94	$0.14	-$25	32% 2228-4733 (6961)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$1.96	$0.14	-$24.75	53% 12585-11023 (23608)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$3.19	$0.11	-$19.81	28% 2885-7426 (10311)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.21	$0.05	-$0.16	17% 4506-22058 (26564)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yes	$0.04	$0.04	-$8.01	47% 10380-11846 (22226)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yes	$0.02	$0.02	-$4.21	25% 481-1459 (1940)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$1.5	$0.02	-$1.49	28% 579-1489 (2068)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$65.37

Value

$0.74

PnL

-$133.81

Record

40%

853-1286 (2139)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.17

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$0.01

Record

52%

31052-29024 (60076)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.94

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$25

Record

32%

2228-4733 (6961)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.96

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$24.75

Record

53%

12585-11023 (23608)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.19

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$19.81

Record

28%

2885-7426 (10311)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.21

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.16

Record

17%

4506-22058 (26564)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$8.01

Record

47%

10380-11846 (22226)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$4.21

Record

25%

481-1459 (1940)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.5

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.49

Record

28%

579-1489 (2068)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.