Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 15°C on November 6?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$1.0K
-$44.03
99.3¢ → 100¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+27 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Mature
38h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Noavg 99.9¢ | $796.94 | $796.9 | -$0.04 | 97% 264-7 (271) |
CI cigarettes | Noavg 98¢ | $108.6 | $110.71 | +$2.1 | 53% 23775-20945 (44720) |
 balthazar | Noavg 98.5¢ | $343.66 | $71.31 | -$17.42 | 52% 30994-29002 (59996) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 89.2¢ | $29.66 | $30.38 | +$0.71 | 58% 21328-15480 (36808) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $7.11 | $1.14 | -$28.55 | 40% 846-1253 (2099) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.03 | $0.03 | -$0.84 | 28% 2863-7356 (10219) |
Invested
$796.94
Value
$796.9
PnL
-$0.04
Record
97%
264-7 (271)
Invested
$108.6
Value
$110.71
PnL
+$2.1
Record
53%
23775-20945 (44720)
balthazarInvested
$343.66
Value
$71.31
PnL
-$17.42
Record
52%
30994-29002 (59996)
Invested
$29.66
Value
$30.38
PnL
+$0.71
Record
58%
21328-15480 (36808)
Invested
$7.11
Value
$1.14
PnL
-$28.55
Record
40%
846-1253 (2099)
Invested
$0.03
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$0.84
Record
28%
2863-7356 (10219)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.