Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (64%). 3 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 16°C on November 5?

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (30%) · Yes at 36¢ · $369 held · ends Nov 5

Yes36¢No64¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 30%

Total Value

$368.73

Combined PnL

$36.51

Smart Money Entry

23.4¢ → 36¢

+54% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 36%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors No 64%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes36%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$186.91

Total Shares600

Combined PnL+$46.74

No7 traders

Total Value$181.8

Total Shares263

Combined PnL-$10.23

Yes — 30%No — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-37 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 23.3¢	$119.8	$159.47	+$39.67	41% 815-1172 (1987)
BI Bilberry	Noavg 68.1¢	$110.64	$102.34	-$4.87	53% 3840-3419 (7259)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 64.2¢	$36.7	$36.61	-$0.09	54% 10084-8706 (18790)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 20.8¢	$13.56	$20.23	+$6.67	48% 2175-2375 (4550)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 70.5¢	$96.08	$20.02	-$2.65	15% 498-2922 (3420)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 74.1¢	$20.71	$13.76	-$2.44	58% 19680-14468 (34148)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$6.8	$7.2	+$0.4	20% 2607-10331 (12938)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 75.6¢	$86.76	$3.15	-$0.63	77% 12654-3874 (16528)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 57.2¢	$2.86	$3.15	+$0.29	53% 8266-7377 (15643)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 59.2¢	$2.59	$2.76	+$0.17	55% 4438-3636 (8074)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$119.8

Value

$159.47

PnL

+$39.67

Record

41%

815-1172 (1987)

Bilberry

Invested

$110.64

Value

$102.34

PnL

-$4.87

Record

53%

3840-3419 (7259)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$36.7

Value

$36.61

PnL

-$0.09

Record

54%

10084-8706 (18790)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.56

Value

$20.23

PnL

+$6.67

Record

48%

2175-2375 (4550)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$96.08

Value

$20.02

PnL

-$2.65

Record

15%

498-2922 (3420)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$20.71

Value

$13.76

PnL

-$2.44

Record

58%

19680-14468 (34148)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.8

Value

$7.2

PnL

+$0.4

Record

20%

2607-10331 (12938)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$86.76

Value

$3.15

PnL

-$0.63

Record

77%

12654-3874 (16528)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$2.86

Value

$3.15

PnL

+$0.29

Record

53%

8266-7377 (15643)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$2.59

Value

$2.76

PnL

+$0.17

Record

55%

4438-3636 (8074)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 36%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors No 64%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-37 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.2%

36.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$162.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

262.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.