Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 15°C on November 2?

1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 58¢ · $782 held · ends Nov 2

Yes58¢No42¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$782.45

Combined PnL

$103.1

Research grade

NeutralYes at 58%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 2 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes58%

No42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$450

Total Shares776

Combined PnL+$100.79

No1 trader

Total Value$20.94

Total Shares50

Combined PnL+$2.31

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 61.5¢	$354.3	$450	+$100.79	47% 698-782 (1480)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 39.6¢	$323.1	$311.52	-$2.59	18% 365-1632 (1997)
└ No leg	Noavg 39.6¢	$197.3	$209.15	+$10.3
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 65.3¢	$115.24	$102.37	-$12.89
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Noavg 33.4¢	$18.28	$20.94	+$2.31	59% 1921-1351 (3272)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$354.3

Value

$450

PnL

+$100.79

Record

47%

698-782 (1480)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$323.1

Value

$311.52

PnL

-$2.59

Record

18%

365-1632 (1997)

Both legs:

No$197.339.6¢+$10.3

Yes$115.2465.3¢-$12.89

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$18.28

Value

$20.94

PnL

+$2.31

Record

59%

1921-1351 (3272)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 58%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 2 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.2%

58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$66.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

166.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.