Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (80%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 14°C on November 2?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 21¢ · $388 held · ends Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 50%
1 arb excluded
$388.21
$24.96
20.8¢ → 20.5¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 21%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
19h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100 | Noavg 73.4¢ | $182.37 | $187.87 | +$5.49 | 47% 698-782 (1480) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 73.4¢ | $132.56 | $140.85 | +$9.91 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 22.4¢ | $52.61 | $47.02 | -$4.41 | |
 fildoroCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20.7¢ | $55.85 | $84.49 | +$28.64 | 62% 1447-905 (2352) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $72.73 | $71.05 | -$1.68 | 59% 1921-1351 (3272) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 81.6¢ | $45.56 | $25.08 | -$2 | 18% 365-1635 (2000) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 79.5¢ | $20.11 | $19.73 | +$0 | 53% 6689-5886 (12575) |
Invested
$182.37
Value
$187.87
PnL
+$5.49
Record
47%
698-782 (1480)
Both legs:
fildoroCTR<$100Invested
$55.85
Value
$84.49
PnL
+$28.64
Record
62%
1447-905 (2352)
Invested
$72.73
Value
$71.05
PnL
-$1.68
Record
59%
1921-1351 (3272)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$45.56
Value
$25.08
PnL
-$2
Record
18%
365-1635 (2000)
Invested
$20.11
Value
$19.73
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
6689-5886 (12575)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
20.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.