Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 19°C on November 15?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 100¢ · $101 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$101.45

Combined PnL

-$2.4

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 99.7¢

+0% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$101.44

Total Shares102

Combined PnL+$0.05

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.01

Total Shares2

Combined PnL-$2.45

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$19.92	$19.98	+$0.06	53% 7113-6221 (13334)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$19.97	$19.98	+$0.01	42% 1635-2289 (3924)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$19.98	$19.98	-$0	58% 767-547 (1314)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$9.99	$9.99	-$0	29% 1113-2674 (3787)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$9.99	$9.99	-$0	34% 238-461 (699)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$8.08	$8.08	-$0	46% 1139-1332 (2471)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$6.04	$6.03	-$0.01	52% 810-753 (1563)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.13	$5.13	-$0	50% 763-758 (1521)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$2.28	$2.27	-$0	49% 798-831 (1629)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$26.27	$0.01	-$2.45	36% 263-468 (731)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.92

Value

$19.98

PnL

+$0.06

Record

53%

7113-6221 (13334)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$19.97

Value

$19.98

PnL

+$0.01

Record

42%

1635-2289 (3924)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$19.98

Value

$19.98

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

767-547 (1314)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$9.99

Value

$9.99

PnL

-$0

Record

29%

1113-2674 (3787)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$9.99

Value

$9.99

PnL

-$0

Record

34%

238-461 (699)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$8.08

Value

$8.08

PnL

-$0

Record

46%

1139-1332 (2471)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$6.04

Value

$6.03

PnL

-$0.01

Record

52%

810-753 (1563)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.13

Value

$5.13

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

763-758 (1521)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$2.28

Value

$2.27

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

798-831 (1629)

god83743894CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.27

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.45

Record

36%

263-468 (731)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.