Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 18°C on November 15?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 99¢ · $400 held · ends Nov 15

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$400.02

Combined PnL

$6.89

Smart Money Entry

97.2¢ → 98.6¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$399.93

Total Shares404

Combined PnL+$6.95

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.09

Total Shares2

Combined PnL-$0.06

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
12 123987456	Noavg 97¢	$159.97	$163.18	+$3.21	29% 62-155 (217)
24 241532532432	Noavg 96.5¢	$131.21	$134.5	+$3.29	40% 633-964 (1597)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$49.59	$49.6	+$0.01	28% 1016-2624 (3640)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$19.38	$19.78	+$0.4	53% 6992-6143 (13135)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$14.88	$14.89	+$0.01	51% 748-722 (1470)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$9.89	$9.89	-$0	33% 225-451 (676)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$5.07	$5.08	+$0.01	51% 790-758 (1548)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$2.99	$3	+$0.01	50% 704-694 (1398)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.15	$0.09	-$0.06	34% 240-466 (706)

123987456

Invested

$159.97

Value

$163.18

PnL

+$3.21

Record

29%

62-155 (217)

241532532432

Invested

$131.21

Value

$134.5

PnL

+$3.29

Record

40%

633-964 (1597)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$49.59

Value

$49.6

PnL

+$0.01

Record

28%

1016-2624 (3640)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.38

Value

$19.78

PnL

+$0.4

Record

53%

6992-6143 (13135)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$14.88

Value

$14.89

PnL

+$0.01

Record

51%

748-722 (1470)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$9.89

Value

$9.89

PnL

-$0

Record

33%

225-451 (676)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.07

Value

$5.08

PnL

+$0.01

Record

51%

790-758 (1548)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$2.99

Value

PnL

+$0.01

Record

50%

704-694 (1398)

god83743894CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$0.06

Record

34%

240-466 (706)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.