Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 17°C on November 15?

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (85%) · No at 91¢ · $335 held · ends Nov 15

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 85%

Total Value

$335.35

Combined PnL

$54.37

Smart Money Entry

77.3¢ → 91.4¢

+18% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$333.24

Total Shares361

Combined PnL+$54.39

Yes2 traders

Total Value$2.1

Total Shares12

Combined PnL-$0.02

No — 85%Yes — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

85% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 85% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Noavg 74.1¢	$169.77	$211.66	+$41.89	55% 1208-982 (2190)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 78.1¢	$17.1	$20.24	+$3.14	52% 1661-1516 (3177)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 74.7¢	$15.83	$19.58	+$3.75	55% 2277-1842 (4119)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 88.7¢	$17.86	$18.62	+$0.75	29% 1098-2660 (3758)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 77.7¢	$15.54	$18.48	+$2.94	53% 6992-6143 (13135)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 88.1¢	$8.81	$9.24	+$0.43	33% 225-451 (676)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 88.1¢	$8.81	$9.24	+$0.43	42% 1624-2283 (3907)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 88.9¢	$8.89	$9.24	+$0.35	49% 739-774 (1513)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 88.8¢	$7.22	$7.51	+$0.29	49% 769-816 (1585)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 88.7¢	$4.56	$4.75	+$0.19	51% 748-722 (1470)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 88.1¢	$4.46	$4.68	+$0.22	50% 704-694 (1398)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 19.7¢	$1.97	$1.8	-$0.17	40% 633-964 (1597)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.15	$0.3	+$0.15	34% 240-466 (706)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Invested

$169.77

Value

$211.66

PnL

+$41.89

Record

55%

1208-982 (2190)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$17.1

Value

$20.24

PnL

+$3.14

Record

52%

1661-1516 (3177)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$15.83

Value

$19.58

PnL

+$3.75

Record

55%

2277-1842 (4119)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$17.86

Value

$18.62

PnL

+$0.75

Record

29%

1098-2660 (3758)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$15.54

Value

$18.48

PnL

+$2.94

Record

53%

6992-6143 (13135)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$8.81

Value

$9.24

PnL

+$0.43

Record

33%

225-451 (676)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$8.81

Value

$9.24

PnL

+$0.43

Record

42%

1624-2283 (3907)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$8.89

Value

$9.24

PnL

+$0.35

Record

49%

739-774 (1513)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$7.22

Value

$7.51

PnL

+$0.29

Record

49%

769-816 (1585)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$4.56

Value

$4.75

PnL

+$0.19

Record

51%

748-722 (1470)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$4.46

Value

$4.68

PnL

+$0.22

Record

50%

704-694 (1398)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.97

Value

$1.8

PnL

-$0.17

Record

40%

633-964 (1597)

god83743894CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.3

PnL

+$0.15

Record

34%

240-466 (706)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

85% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 85% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.