Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 16°C on November 15?

1 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (10%) · Yes at 57¢ · $380 held · ends Nov 15

Yes57¢No43¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 10%

Total Value

$379.54

Combined PnL

$48.52

Research grade

NeutralYes at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 10 top traders (10%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes57%

No43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$285.36

Total Shares528

Combined PnL+$45.15

No9 traders

Total Value$94.18

Total Shares214

Combined PnL+$3.36

Yes — 10%No — 90%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

10% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 45.5¢	$240.21	$285.36	+$45.15	55% 1208-982 (2190)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Noavg 43.9¢	$24.6	$24.64	+$0.04	40% 633-964 (1597)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Noavg 41¢	$71.92	$20.48	+$3.72	31% 157-344 (501)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$11.53	$11.53	-$0	30% 1031-2401 (3432)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$8.87	$8.87	-$0	42% 1624-2283 (3907)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$9.2	$8.8	-$0.4	53% 6992-6143 (13135)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$8.8	$8.8	-$0	29% 1098-2660 (3758)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$4.4	$4.4	-$0	49% 739-774 (1513)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$4.4	$4.4	-$0	51% 790-758 (1548)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$2.26	$2.26	-$0	46% 1081-1285 (2366)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$240.21

Value

$285.36

PnL

+$45.15

Record

55%

1208-982 (2190)

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$24.6

Value

$24.64

PnL

+$0.04

Record

40%

633-964 (1597)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Invested

$71.92

Value

$20.48

PnL

+$3.72

Record

31%

157-344 (501)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Invested

$11.53

Value

$11.53

PnL

-$0

Record

30%

1031-2401 (3432)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Invested

$8.87

Value

$8.87

PnL

-$0

Record

42%

1624-2283 (3907)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$9.2

Value

$8.8

PnL

-$0.4

Record

53%

6992-6143 (13135)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Invested

$8.8

Value

$8.8

PnL

-$0

Record

29%

1098-2660 (3758)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$4.4

Value

$4.4

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

739-774 (1513)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$4.4

Value

$4.4

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

790-758 (1548)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$2.26

Value

$2.26

PnL

-$0

Record

46%

1081-1285 (2366)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 57%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 10 top traders (10%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

10% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.