Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 15°C on November 15?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 68¢ · $202 held · ends Nov 15

Yes33¢No67¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$201.66

Combined PnL

$5.53

Smart Money Entry

74.1¢ → 67.5¢

-9% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$112.71

Total Shares389

Combined PnL+$19.59

No7 traders

Total Value$88.94

Total Shares139

Combined PnL-$14.07

Yes — 22%No — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 25.3¢	$74.39	$85.16	+$10.77	40% 39-59 (98)
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 77¢	$72.92	$47.74	-$9.7	31% 157-344 (501)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 19.7¢	$18.73	$27.55	+$8.82	40% 633-964 (1597)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 73¢	$19.13	$16.77	-$2.36	34% 268-522 (790)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 71¢	$7.1	$6.4	-$0.7	29% 1098-2660 (3758)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 71.2¢	$7.12	$6.4	-$0.72	42% 1624-2283 (3907)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 67¢	$5.41	$5.16	-$0.24	58% 692-501 (1193)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 68¢	$3.5	$3.29	-$0.21	51% 790-758 (1548)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 67¢	$3.32	$3.17	-$0.15	58% 705-507 (1212)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$74.39

Value

$85.16

PnL

+$10.77

Record

40%

39-59 (98)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$72.92

Value

$47.74

PnL

-$9.7

Record

31%

157-344 (501)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.73

Value

$27.55

PnL

+$8.82

Record

40%

633-964 (1597)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$19.13

Value

$16.77

PnL

-$2.36

Record

34%

268-522 (790)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$7.1

Value

$6.4

PnL

-$0.7

Record

29%

1098-2660 (3758)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$7.12

Value

$6.4

PnL

-$0.72

Record

42%

1624-2283 (3907)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$5.41

Value

$5.16

PnL

-$0.24

Record

58%

692-501 (1193)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.29

PnL

-$0.21

Record

51%

790-758 (1548)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$3.32

Value

$3.17

PnL

-$0.15

Record

58%

705-507 (1212)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.