Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 14°C on November 15?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 98¢ · $103 held · ends Nov 15

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$103.01

Combined PnL

-$0.73

Smart Money Entry

98.1¢ → 97.7¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$102.65

Total Shares105

Combined PnL+$0.1

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.36

Total Shares12

Combined PnL-$0.83

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$29.59	$29.6	+$0.01	33% 225-451 (676)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$25.76	$25.73	-$0.03	42% 1624-2283 (3907)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$19.58	$19.64	+$0.06	53% 6992-6143 (13135)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$9.82	$9.82	+$0	28% 1016-2624 (3640)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$7.99	$7.98	-$0	58% 692-501 (1193)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$4.96	$4.97	+$0.01	51% 790-758 (1548)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 97¢	$4.85	$4.91	+$0.06	29% 62-155 (217)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$1.04	$0.31	-$0.73	52% 1661-1516 (3177)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.15	$0.05	-$0.1	34% 240-466 (706)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$29.59

Value

$29.6

PnL

+$0.01

Record

33%

225-451 (676)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$25.76

Value

$25.73

PnL

-$0.03

Record

42%

1624-2283 (3907)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.58

Value

$19.64

PnL

+$0.06

Record

53%

6992-6143 (13135)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$9.82

Value

$9.82

PnL

+$0

Record

28%

1016-2624 (3640)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$7.99

Value

$7.98

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

692-501 (1193)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$4.96

Value

$4.97

PnL

+$0.01

Record

51%

790-758 (1548)

123987456<$100

Invested

$4.85

Value

$4.91

PnL

+$0.06

Record

29%

62-155 (217)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.04

Value

$0.31

PnL

-$0.73

Record

52%

1661-1516 (3177)

god83743894CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.1

Record

34%

240-466 (706)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.8%

97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.25

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.