Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 13°C on November 15?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 100¢ · $67 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$66.97

Combined PnL

-$21.34

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$66.24

Total Shares66

Combined PnL-$0.02

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.73

Total Shares243

Combined PnL-$21.32

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$19.96	$19.98	+$0.02	53% 7213-6305 (13518)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$14.98	$14.95	-$0.02	49% 820-849 (1669)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$10.26	$10.26	+$0	46% 1163-1351 (2514)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$9.11	$9.1	-$0.01	50% 784-774 (1558)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$6.04	$6.04	+$0	51% 872-825 (1697)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$3.41	$3.41	+$0	58% 794-568 (1362)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$2.5	$2.5	+$0	99% 1449-21 (1470)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$10.03	$0.33	-$9.7	43% 5134-6831 (11965)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$9.64	$0.32	-$9.32	60% 796-535 (1331)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.38	$0.08	-$2.3	33% 286-585 (871)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.96

Value

$19.98

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

7213-6305 (13518)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$14.98

Value

$14.95

PnL

-$0.02

Record

49%

820-849 (1669)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$10.26

Value

$10.26

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

1163-1351 (2514)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$9.11

Value

$9.1

PnL

-$0.01

Record

50%

784-774 (1558)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$6.04

Value

$6.04

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

872-825 (1697)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$3.41

Value

$3.41

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

794-568 (1362)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0

Record

99%

1449-21 (1470)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.03

Value

$0.33

PnL

-$9.7

Record

43%

5134-6831 (11965)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.64

Value

$0.32

PnL

-$9.32

Record

60%

796-535 (1331)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.38

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$2.3

Record

33%

286-585 (871)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.