Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 12°C on November 15?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $80 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 89%

Total Value

$80.31

Combined PnL

-$66.83

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$79.96

Total Shares80

Combined PnL+$0.04

Yes8 traders

Total Value$0.35

Total Shares705

Combined PnL-$66.87

No — 11%Yes — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$79.92	$79.96	+$0.04	99% 1517-23 (1540)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$16.18	$0.09	-$16.09	59% 843-574 (1417)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$50.37	$0.09	-$18.56	35% 3865-7145 (11010)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$10.03	$0.06	-$9.98	43% 5181-7002 (12183)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$9.09	$0.05	-$9.04	29% 266-655 (921)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.62	$0.03	-$5.59	38% 308-501 (809)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.63	$0.03	-$4.61	28% 3267-8302 (11569)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.38	$0.01	-$2.37	34% 306-590 (896)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.65	$0	-$0.64	24% 762-2435 (3197)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$79.92

Value

$79.96

PnL

+$0.04

Record

99%

1517-23 (1540)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.18

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$16.09

Record

59%

843-574 (1417)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.37

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$18.56

Record

35%

3865-7145 (11010)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.03

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$9.98

Record

43%

5181-7002 (12183)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.09

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$9.04

Record

29%

266-655 (921)

god83743894CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.62

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.59

Record

38%

308-501 (809)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.63

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$4.61

Record

28%

3267-8302 (11569)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.38

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.37

Record

34%

306-590 (896)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.65

Value

PnL

-$0.64

Record

24%

762-2435 (3197)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.