Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 19°C or higher on November 14?

1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (11%) · No at 100¢ · $300 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 11%

Total Value

$300.16

Combined PnL

-$56.87

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$299.85

Total Shares300

Combined PnL+$0.15

Yes8 traders

Total Value$0.31

Total Shares621

Combined PnL-$57.02

No — 11%Yes — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.9¢	$299.7	$299.85	+$0.15	99% 1213-13 (1226)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$26.35	$0.09	-$17.63	36% 3731-6727 (10458)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$10.91	$0.06	-$10.85	28% 1014-2623 (3637)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$9.09	$0.05	-$9.04	31% 146-327 (473)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$9.08	$0.05	-$9.03	44% 5045-6487 (11532)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.57	$0.03	-$5.54	29% 3160-7828 (10988)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.05	$0.01	-$2.03	26% 548-1574 (2122)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.64	$0.01	-$1.63	50% 701-690 (1391)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.27	$0.01	-$1.27	27% 673-1791 (2464)

1DVSBSTD

Invested

$299.7

Value

$299.85

PnL

+$0.15

Record

99%

1213-13 (1226)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.35

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$17.63

Record

36%

3731-6727 (10458)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.91

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$10.85

Record

28%

1014-2623 (3637)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.09

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$9.04

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.08

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$9.03

Record

44%

5045-6487 (11532)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.57

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.54

Record

29%

3160-7828 (10988)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.05

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.03

Record

26%

548-1574 (2122)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.64

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.63

Record

50%

701-690 (1391)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.27

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.27

Record

27%

673-1791 (2464)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.