Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 18°C on November 14?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $80 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 89%

Total Value

$80.24

Combined PnL

-$54.25

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$79.96

Total Shares80

Combined PnL+$0.04

Yes8 traders

Total Value$0.28

Total Shares567

Combined PnL-$54.29

No — 11%Yes — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$79.92	$79.96	+$0.04	99% 1213-13 (1226)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$48.56	$0.08	-$17.62	36% 3731-6727 (10458)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$9.09	$0.05	-$9.04	31% 146-327 (473)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$9.08	$0.05	-$9.03	44% 5045-6487 (11532)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.18	$0.05	-$8.14	28% 1014-2623 (3637)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.57	$0.03	-$5.54	29% 3160-7828 (10988)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.05	$0.01	-$2.03	26% 548-1574 (2122)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.64	$0.01	-$1.63	50% 701-690 (1391)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.27	$0.01	-$1.27	27% 673-1791 (2464)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$79.92

Value

$79.96

PnL

+$0.04

Record

99%

1213-13 (1226)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.56

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$17.62

Record

36%

3731-6727 (10458)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.09

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$9.04

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.08

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$9.03

Record

44%

5045-6487 (11532)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.18

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$8.14

Record

28%

1014-2623 (3637)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.57

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.54

Record

29%

3160-7828 (10988)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.05

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.03

Record

26%

548-1574 (2122)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.64

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.63

Record

50%

701-690 (1391)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.27

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.27

Record

27%

673-1791 (2464)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.