Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 17°C on November 14?
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (78%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $140 held · ends Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
9
Yes 78%
$140.11
-$44.64
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 54%
Freshness
Mature
13h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $79.92 | $79.96 | +$0.04 | 99% 1195-12 (1207) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $59.94 | $59.97 | +$0.03 | 29% 232-564 (796) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $9.09 | $0.05 | -$9.04 | 31% 146-327 (473) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $9.08 | $0.05 | -$9.03 | 44% 5036-6461 (11497) |
 LucerysCTR | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $134.31 | $0.03 | -$17.51 | 36% 3727-6719 (10446) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $5.57 | $0.03 | -$5.54 | 29% 3158-7813 (10971) |
KA kaxel78CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.05 | $0.01 | -$2.03 | 26% 548-1574 (2122) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.27 | $0.01 | -$1.27 | 27% 667-1774 (2441) |
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.29 | $0 | -$0.29 | 28% 1014-2623 (3637) |
Invested
$79.92
Value
$79.96
PnL
+$0.04
Record
99%
1195-12 (1207)
Invested
$59.94
Value
$59.97
PnL
+$0.03
Record
29%
232-564 (796)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$9.09
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$9.04
Record
31%
146-327 (473)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$9.08
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$9.03
Record
44%
5036-6461 (11497)
LucerysCTRInvested
$134.31
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$17.51
Record
36%
3727-6719 (10446)
Invested
$5.57
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$5.54
Record
29%
3158-7813 (10971)
Invested
$2.05
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$2.03
Record
26%
548-1574 (2122)
Invested
$1.27
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.27
Record
27%
667-1774 (2441)
Invested
$0.29
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.29
Record
28%
1014-2623 (3637)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.