Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 16°C on November 14?
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $170 held · ends Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
9
Yes 56%
$170.02
-$36.83
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 55%
Freshness
Mature
14h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $89.76 | $89.91 | +$0.15 | 42% 1621-2282 (3903) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $47.15 | $47.24 | +$0.09 | 53% 6888-6032 (12920) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $29.76 | $29.97 | +$0.21 | 34% 231-458 (689) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $2.5 | $2.5 | +$0.01 | 99% 1195-12 (1207) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.23 | $0.11 | -$0.11 | 13% 76-495 (571) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $9.09 | $0.1 | -$8.99 | 31% 146-327 (473) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $9.08 | $0.1 | -$8.98 | 44% 5036-6461 (11497) |
 LucerysCTR | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $145.02 | $0.05 | -$17.18 | 36% 3727-6719 (10446) |
KA kaxel78CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.05 | $0.02 | -$2.02 | 26% 548-1574 (2122) |
Invested
$89.76
Value
$89.91
PnL
+$0.15
Record
42%
1621-2282 (3903)
Invested
$47.15
Value
$47.24
PnL
+$0.09
Record
53%
6888-6032 (12920)
Invested
$29.76
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$0.21
Record
34%
231-458 (689)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.5
PnL
+$0.01
Record
99%
1195-12 (1207)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.23
Value
$0.11
PnL
-$0.11
Record
13%
76-495 (571)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$9.09
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$8.99
Record
31%
146-327 (473)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$9.08
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$8.98
Record
44%
5036-6461 (11497)
LucerysCTRInvested
$145.02
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$17.18
Record
36%
3727-6719 (10446)
Invested
$2.05
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$2.02
Record
26%
548-1574 (2122)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.