Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 15°C on November 14?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 99¢ · $400 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$399.52
$2.02
95.7¢ → 99¢
+3% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 94.3¢ | $150.9 | $158.4 | +$7.5 | 39% 579-908 (1487) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $93.73 | $94.29 | +$0.56 | 53% 6646-5820 (12466) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 97.2¢ | $58.35 | $59.4 | +$1.05 | 30% 189-443 (632) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 95.7¢ | $28.71 | $29.7 | +$0.99 | 31% 225-501 (726) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $28.8 | $29.7 | +$0.9 | 30% 993-2362 (3355) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 89.8¢ | $21.23 | $23.41 | +$2.18 | 53% 1374-1218 (2592) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $42.26 | $3.32 | -$3.37 | 29% 3101-7566 (10667) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $9.09 | $1.3 | -$7.79 | 31% 114-255 (369) |
Invested
$150.9
Value
$158.4
PnL
+$7.5
Record
39%
579-908 (1487)
Invested
$93.73
Value
$94.29
PnL
+$0.56
Record
53%
6646-5820 (12466)
Invested
$58.35
Value
$59.4
PnL
+$1.05
Record
30%
189-443 (632)
Invested
$28.71
Value
$29.7
PnL
+$0.99
Record
31%
225-501 (726)
Invested
$28.8
Value
$29.7
PnL
+$0.9
Record
30%
993-2362 (3355)
Invested
$21.23
Value
$23.41
PnL
+$2.18
Record
53%
1374-1218 (2592)
Invested
$42.26
Value
$3.32
PnL
-$3.37
Record
29%
3101-7566 (10667)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$9.09
Value
$1.3
PnL
-$7.79
Record
31%
114-255 (369)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.