Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 14°C on November 14?

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 71¢ · $529 held · ends Nov 14

Yes29¢No71¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$529.23

Combined PnL

$5.21

Smart Money Entry

73.9¢ → 71.4¢

-3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes29%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$401.34

Total Shares567

Combined PnL-$17.62

Yes6 traders

Total Value$127.55

Total Shares439

Combined PnL+$22.83

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Noavg 80.4¢	$217.29	$191.72	-$25.57	56% 1189-918 (2107)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 70¢	$67.58	$67.67	+$0.1	53% 6618-5816 (12434)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 31.8¢	$69.65	$63.47	-$6.18	58% 2224-1622 (3846)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 68.5¢	$54.8	$56.78	+$1.98	73% 778-291 (1069)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 66.4¢	$39.84	$42.58	+$2.74	29% 1059-2631 (3690)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 66.4¢	$19.92	$21.29	+$1.37	30% 187-428 (615)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 65.1¢	$19.53	$21.29	+$1.76	27% 197-540 (737)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 31.6¢	$18.01	$16.53	-$1.48	38% 543-874 (1417)
LornaPredictsCTR	Yesavg 29.7¢	$122.39	$15.77	+$1.24	13% 62-416 (478)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 19.5¢	$10.17	$15.12	+$4.95	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
HaradwaithCTR	Yesavg 34.8¢	$118.1	$10.68	+$24.18	30% 108-251 (359)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 29.3¢	$5.86	$5.98	+$0.12	65% 4251-2269 (6520)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Invested

$217.29

Value

$191.72

PnL

-$25.57

Record

56%

1189-918 (2107)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$67.58

Value

$67.67

PnL

+$0.1

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$69.65

Value

$63.47

PnL

-$6.18

Record

58%

2224-1622 (3846)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$54.8

Value

$56.78

PnL

+$1.98

Record

73%

778-291 (1069)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$39.84

Value

$42.58

PnL

+$2.74

Record

29%

1059-2631 (3690)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$19.92

Value

$21.29

PnL

+$1.37

Record

30%

187-428 (615)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$19.53

Value

$21.29

PnL

+$1.76

Record

27%

197-540 (737)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.01

Value

$16.53

PnL

-$1.48

Record

38%

543-874 (1417)

LornaPredictsCTR

Yes

Invested

$122.39

Value

$15.77

PnL

+$1.24

Record

13%

62-416 (478)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.17

Value

$15.12

PnL

+$4.95

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

HaradwaithCTR

Yes

Invested

$118.1

Value

$10.68

PnL

+$24.18

Record

30%

108-251 (359)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.86

Value

$5.98

PnL

+$0.12

Record

65%

4251-2269 (6520)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.4%

71.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.