Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (72%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 13°C on November 14?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 28¢ · $228 held · ends Nov 14

Yes72¢No28¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$227.89

Combined PnL

$1.85

Smart Money Entry

41.1¢ → 28¢

-32% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 72%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes72%

No28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$100.82

Total Shares174

Combined PnL+$17.65

No6 traders

Total Value$127.07

Total Shares438

Combined PnL-$15.8

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100	Yesavg 45.4¢	$61.75	$78.88	+$17.13	56% 1189-918 (2107)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Noavg 45.3¢	$80.01	$39.44	-$20.57	58% 2224-1622 (3846)
HaradwaithCTR	Noavg 45.5¢	$124.69	$29.24	+$18.92	30% 108-251 (359)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 32.8¢	$31.85	$28.15	-$3.7	53% 6618-5816 (12434)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Noavg 38.1¢	$24.19	$18.41	-$5.78	38% 543-874 (1417)
LornaPredicts<$100	Yesavg 55¢	$11	$11.6	+$0.6	13% 62-416 (478)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 58.4¢	$10.42	$10.34	-$0.08	73% 778-291 (1069)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Noavg 41¢	$12.3	$8.7	-$3.6	31% 221-498 (719)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 39¢	$4.2	$3.13	-$1.08	53% 1326-1186 (2512)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.75

Value

$78.88

PnL

+$17.13

Record

56%

1189-918 (2107)

hello.67CTR<$100

Invested

$80.01

Value

$39.44

PnL

-$20.57

Record

58%

2224-1622 (3846)

HaradwaithCTR

Invested

$124.69

Value

$29.24

PnL

+$18.92

Record

30%

108-251 (359)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$31.85

Value

$28.15

PnL

-$3.7

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$24.19

Value

$18.41

PnL

-$5.78

Record

38%

543-874 (1417)

LornaPredicts<$100

Yes

Invested

$11

Value

$11.6

PnL

+$0.6

Record

13%

62-416 (478)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.42

Value

$10.34

PnL

-$0.08

Record

73%

778-291 (1069)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Invested

$12.3

Value

$8.7

PnL

-$3.6

Record

31%

221-498 (719)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$4.2

Value

$3.13

PnL

-$1.08

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 72%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.0%

28.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$233.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

333.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.