Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 12°C on November 14?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $121 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$121.22

Combined PnL

-$113.2

Smart Money Entry

92.9¢ → 99.9¢

+8% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$116.82

Total Shares117

Combined PnL+$8.22

Yes5 traders

Total Value$4.39

Total Shares2,023

Combined PnL-$121.42

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 94¢	$28.2	$29.97	+$1.77	29% 185-443 (628)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 95.2¢	$28.55	$29.97	+$1.42	31% 221-498 (719)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 90¢	$27	$29.97	+$2.97	30% 989-2362 (3351)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 92¢	$18.4	$19.98	+$1.58	53% 6618-5816 (12434)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 93¢	$6.45	$6.93	+$0.48	73% 778-291 (1069)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.9¢	$57.44	$1.24	-$0.05	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.6¢	$54.3	$1.24	-$53.06	58% 2224-1622 (3846)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.2¢	$22.18	$1.06	-$21.12	38% 543-874 (1417)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$2.75	$0.5	-$2.25	13% 62-416 (478)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 13.1¢	$45.28	$0.34	-$44.93	56% 1189-918 (2107)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$28.2

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$1.77

Record

29%

185-443 (628)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$28.55

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$1.42

Record

31%

221-498 (719)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$27

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$2.97

Record

30%

989-2362 (3351)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$18.4

Value

$19.98

PnL

+$1.58

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$6.45

Value

$6.93

PnL

+$0.48

Record

73%

778-291 (1069)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$57.44

Value

$1.24

PnL

-$0.05

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.3

Value

$1.24

PnL

-$53.06

Record

58%

2224-1622 (3846)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.18

Value

$1.06

PnL

-$21.12

Record

38%

543-874 (1417)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.75

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$2.25

Record

13%

62-416 (478)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.28

Value

$0.34

PnL

-$44.93

Record

56%

1189-918 (2107)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.