Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 11°C on November 14?
6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 100¢ · $150 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 60%
$150.26
-$23.96
99.3¢ → 100¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 40%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 40% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $29.88 | $29.85 | -$0.03 | 29% 1059-2631 (3690) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $29.67 | $29.85 | +$0.18 | 41% 1570-2276 (3846) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $29.82 | $29.85 | +$0.03 | 31% 221-498 (719) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $29.87 | $29.85 | -$0.02 | 30% 989-2362 (3351) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $19.9 | $19.9 | +$0 | 53% 6618-5816 (12434) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 98.2¢ | $10.43 | $10.57 | +$0.13 | 53% 1326-1186 (2512) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $9.09 | $0.15 | -$8.49 | 30% 108-251 (359) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.13 | $0.13 | +$0 | 13% 62-416 (478) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $4.02 | $0.09 | -$3.93 | 29% 3079-7466 (10545) |
 LucerysCTR | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $128.71 | $0.02 | -$11.85 | 36% 3613-6424 (10037) |
Invested
$29.88
Value
$29.85
PnL
-$0.03
Record
29%
1059-2631 (3690)
Invested
$29.67
Value
$29.85
PnL
+$0.18
Record
41%
1570-2276 (3846)
Invested
$29.82
Value
$29.85
PnL
+$0.03
Record
31%
221-498 (719)
Invested
$29.87
Value
$29.85
PnL
-$0.02
Record
30%
989-2362 (3351)
Invested
$19.9
Value
$19.9
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
6618-5816 (12434)
Invested
$10.43
Value
$10.57
PnL
+$0.13
Record
53%
1326-1186 (2512)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$9.09
Value
$0.15
PnL
-$8.49
Record
30%
108-251 (359)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.13
Value
$0.13
PnL
+$0
Record
13%
62-416 (478)
Invested
$4.02
Value
$0.09
PnL
-$3.93
Record
29%
3079-7466 (10545)
LucerysCTRInvested
$128.71
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$11.85
Record
36%
3613-6424 (10037)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.