Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 10°C on November 14?
5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $180 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 50%
$180.06
-$35.04
99.8¢ → 100¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 61%
Freshness
Mature
14h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $79.92 | $79.96 | +$0.04 | 99% 1195-12 (1207) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $29.91 | $29.99 | +$0.08 | 29% 1096-2660 (3756) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.99 | +$0.02 | 29% 232-564 (796) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.99 | +$0.02 | 30% 1026-2400 (3426) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $9.85 | $10.01 | +$0.16 | 53% 1572-1421 (2993) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $9.08 | $0.05 | -$9.03 | 44% 5036-6461 (11497) |
 LucerysCTR | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $134.2 | $0.03 | -$17.48 | 36% 3727-6719 (10446) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $5.57 | $0.03 | -$5.54 | 29% 3158-7813 (10971) |
KA kaxel78CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.05 | $0.01 | -$2.03 | 26% 548-1574 (2122) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.27 | $0.01 | -$1.27 | 27% 667-1774 (2441) |
Invested
$79.92
Value
$79.96
PnL
+$0.04
Record
99%
1195-12 (1207)
Invested
$29.91
Value
$29.99
PnL
+$0.08
Record
29%
1096-2660 (3756)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.99
PnL
+$0.02
Record
29%
232-564 (796)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.99
PnL
+$0.02
Record
30%
1026-2400 (3426)
Invested
$9.85
Value
$10.01
PnL
+$0.16
Record
53%
1572-1421 (2993)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$9.08
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$9.03
Record
44%
5036-6461 (11497)
LucerysCTRInvested
$134.2
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$17.48
Record
36%
3727-6719 (10446)
Invested
$5.57
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$5.54
Record
29%
3158-7813 (10971)
Invested
$2.05
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$2.03
Record
26%
548-1574 (2122)
Invested
$1.27
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.27
Record
27%
667-1774 (2441)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.