Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 17°C on November 13?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 83¢ · $443 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$443.36
-$37.02
76.3¢ → 82.5¢
+8% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 76.1¢ | $159.75 | $170.1 | +$10.35 | 37% 467-800 (1267) |
HE hello.67 | Noavg 78.2¢ | $127.02 | $131.6 | +$4.58 | 61% 2175-1410 (3585) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 31.6¢ | $122.82 | $66.08 | -$56.74 | 58% 1171-835 (2006) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 73.9¢ | $55 | $60.26 | +$5.26 | 53% 6319-5588 (11907) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 64.5¢ | $13.71 | $8.32 | -$0.47 | 53% 1117-973 (2090) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $7 | $7 | +$0 | 45% 137-168 (305) |
Invested
$159.75
Value
$170.1
PnL
+$10.35
Record
37%
467-800 (1267)
Invested
$127.02
Value
$131.6
PnL
+$4.58
Record
61%
2175-1410 (3585)
Invested
$122.82
Value
$66.08
PnL
-$56.74
Record
58%
1171-835 (2006)
Invested
$55
Value
$60.26
PnL
+$5.26
Record
53%
6319-5588 (11907)
Invested
$13.71
Value
$8.32
PnL
-$0.47
Record
53%
1117-973 (2090)
Invested
$7
Value
$7
PnL
+$0
Record
45%
137-168 (305)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.