Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (53%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 16°C on November 13?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 48¢ · $172 held · ends Nov 13

Yes53¢No47¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$171.94

Combined PnL

-$7.68

Smart Money Entry

52.5¢ → 47.5¢

-10% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes53%

No48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$139.58

Total Shares293

Combined PnL-$13.54

Yes3 traders

Total Value$32.36

Total Shares63

Combined PnL+$5.86

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Noavg 55.7¢	$108.92	$93.87	-$15.05	58% 1171-835 (2006)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 46.2¢	$34.35	$34.97	+$0.61	53% 6319-5588 (11907)
HE hello.67<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$22.98	$24.42	+$1.44	61% 2175-1410 (3585)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$12.44	$6.04	+$0.99	37% 467-800 (1267)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 52¢	$5.2	$5.25	+$0.05	65% 4210-2230 (6440)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Noavg 48¢	$4.8	$4.7	-$0.1	45% 137-168 (305)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.86	$2.69	+$4.38	30% 3006-7182 (10188)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Invested

$108.92

Value

$93.87

PnL

-$15.05

Record

58%

1171-835 (2006)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$34.35

Value

$34.97

PnL

+$0.61

Record

53%

6319-5588 (11907)

hello.67<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.98

Value

$24.42

PnL

+$1.44

Record

61%

2175-1410 (3585)

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$12.44

Value

$6.04

PnL

+$0.99

Record

37%

467-800 (1267)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.2

Value

$5.25

PnL

+$0.05

Record

65%

4210-2230 (6440)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.7

PnL

-$0.1

Record

45%

137-168 (305)

qwen300.fund<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.86

Value

$2.69

PnL

+$4.38

Record

30%

3006-7182 (10188)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 48%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.