Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 15°C on November 13?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 71¢ · $164 held · ends Nov 13

Yes29¢No71¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$164.07

Combined PnL

$5.16

Smart Money Entry

78.2¢ → 71.5¢

-9% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes29%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$114.02

Total Shares140

Combined PnL-$0.96

Yes2 traders

Total Value$49.43

Total Shares254

Combined PnL+$6.13

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 83.1¢	$61.82	$53.19	-$8.62	53% 6319-5588 (11907)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 15.5¢	$28.37	$35.59	+$7.22	61% 2175-1410 (3585)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 69.3¢	$37.74	$28.52	+$10.76	37% 467-800 (1267)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 69.3¢	$15.25	$15.75	+$0.51	65% 4210-2230 (6440)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$14.93	$13.84	-$1.09	35% 24-44 (68)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 79.1¢	$8.82	$7.97	-$0.85	74% 721-251 (972)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 74.6¢	$7.46	$7.15	-$0.31	45% 137-168 (305)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96¢	$9.6	$1.43	-$2.45	53% 1117-973 (2090)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$61.82

Value

$53.19

PnL

-$8.62

Record

53%

6319-5588 (11907)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.37

Value

$35.59

PnL

+$7.22

Record

61%

2175-1410 (3585)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$37.74

Value

$28.52

PnL

+$10.76

Record

37%

467-800 (1267)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$15.25

Value

$15.75

PnL

+$0.51

Record

65%

4210-2230 (6440)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.93

Value

$13.84

PnL

-$1.09

Record

35%

24-44 (68)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$8.82

Value

$7.97

PnL

-$0.85

Record

74%

721-251 (972)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$7.46

Value

$7.15

PnL

-$0.31

Record

45%

137-168 (305)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$9.6

Value

$1.43

PnL

-$2.45

Record

53%

1117-973 (2090)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.4%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.