Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 17°C on November 12?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 87¢ · $114 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$114.16
-$16.77
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 63%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 22.6¢ | $49.8 | $29.7 | -$20.1 | 61% 1144-746 (1890) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $25.2 | $25.95 | +$0.75 | 27% 921-2513 (3434) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 79.3¢ | $23.8 | $25.95 | +$2.15 | 14% 55-329 (384) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $16.8 | $17.3 | +$0.5 | 37% 3136-5367 (8503) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $11.33 | $12.56 | +$1.23 | 53% 5575-4959 (10534) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $4 | $2.7 | -$1.3 | 30% 256-590 (846) |
Invested
$49.8
Value
$29.7
PnL
-$20.1
Record
61%
1144-746 (1890)
Invested
$25.2
Value
$25.95
PnL
+$0.75
Record
27%
921-2513 (3434)
Invested
$23.8
Value
$25.95
PnL
+$2.15
Record
14%
55-329 (384)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$16.8
Value
$17.3
PnL
+$0.5
Record
37%
3136-5367 (8503)
Invested
$11.33
Value
$12.56
PnL
+$1.23
Record
53%
5575-4959 (10534)
Invested
$4
Value
$2.7
PnL
-$1.3
Record
30%
256-590 (846)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.