Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (56%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 16°C on November 12?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 45¢ · $138 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$137.8
-$3.41
45.8¢ → 44.5¢
-3% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 63%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $62.04 | $61.35 | -$0.69 | 68% 2062-949 (3011) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $25.2 | $24.92 | -$0.28 | 30% 256-590 (846) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 46.6¢ | $16.08 | $15.53 | -$0.55 | 53% 5575-4959 (10534) |
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $14.1 | $13.5 | -$0.6 | 40% 1439-2157 (3596) |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Noavg 47.3¢ | $14.2 | $13.5 | -$0.7 | 14% 55-329 (384) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $9.6 | $9 | -$0.6 | 37% 3136-5367 (8503) |
Invested
$62.04
Value
$61.35
PnL
-$0.69
Record
68%
2062-949 (3011)
Invested
$25.2
Value
$24.92
PnL
-$0.28
Record
30%
256-590 (846)
Invested
$16.08
Value
$15.53
PnL
-$0.55
Record
53%
5575-4959 (10534)
Invested
$14.1
Value
$13.5
PnL
-$0.6
Record
40%
1439-2157 (3596)
Invested
$14.2
Value
$13.5
PnL
-$0.7
Record
14%
55-329 (384)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$9.6
Value
$9
PnL
-$0.6
Record
37%
3136-5367 (8503)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.