Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 15°C on November 12?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 72¢ · $576 held · ends Nov 12

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$576.4

Combined PnL

-$22.3

Smart Money Entry

76.4¢ → 72¢

-6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$481.47

Total Shares580

Combined PnL-$32.29

Yes2 traders

Total Value$94.93

Total Shares413

Combined PnL+$10

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Noavg 77.2¢	$410.88	$381.26	-$29.63	61% 1144-746 (1890)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 20.8¢	$55.69	$61.58	+$5.89	69% 2062-948 (3010)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 73.5¢	$44.1	$43.2	-$0.9	12% 49-371 (420)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 20.2¢	$29.24	$33.35	+$4.11	30% 246-584 (830)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 77.8¢	$26.87	$24.86	-$2.02	53% 5552-4939 (10491)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 70.8¢	$17.71	$17.76	+$0.05	54% 401-336 (737)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 71¢	$14.2	$14.4	+$0.2	37% 3112-5362 (8474)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Invested

$410.88

Value

$381.26

PnL

-$29.63

Record

61%

1144-746 (1890)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$55.69

Value

$61.58

PnL

+$5.89

Record

69%

2062-948 (3010)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$44.1

Value

$43.2

PnL

-$0.9

Record

12%

49-371 (420)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.24

Value

$33.35

PnL

+$4.11

Record

30%

246-584 (830)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$26.87

Value

$24.86

PnL

-$2.02

Record

53%

5552-4939 (10491)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$17.71

Value

$17.76

PnL

+$0.05

Record

54%

401-336 (737)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$14.2

Value

$14.4

PnL

+$0.2

Record

37%

3112-5362 (8474)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.0%

72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$35.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

135.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.