Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 13°C on November 12?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $23 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$23.44
-$7.59
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-26 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $19.92 | $19.96 | +$0.04 | 53% 5912-5294 (11206) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $2.5 | $2.5 | -$0 | 99% 398-3 (401) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $10.2 | $0.96 | -$5.61 | 49% 492-514 (1006) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $11.12 | $0.02 | -$2.01 | 32% 2924-6249 (9173) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.01 | $0 | -$0.01 | 55% 729-596 (1325) |
Invested
$19.92
Value
$19.96
PnL
+$0.04
Record
53%
5912-5294 (11206)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.5
PnL
-$0
Record
99%
398-3 (401)
Invested
$10.2
Value
$0.96
PnL
-$5.61
Record
49%
492-514 (1006)
Invested
$11.12
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$2.01
Record
32%
2924-6249 (9173)
Invested
$0.01
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.01
Record
55%
729-596 (1325)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.