Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 18°C on November 11?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $80 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$80.13
-$0.13
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $35.37 | $35.32 | -$0.05 | 50% 4483-4431 (8914) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $19.92 | $19.89 | -$0.03 | 52% 5288-4799 (10087) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $10.02 | $10 | -$0.02 | 44% 1068-1376 (2444) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $9.97 | $9.95 | -$0.03 | 28% 2414-6144 (8558) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $4.98 | $4.97 | -$0.01 | 35% 2865-5318 (8183) |
balthazar<$100Invested
$35.37
Value
$35.32
PnL
-$0.05
Record
50%
4483-4431 (8914)
Invested
$19.92
Value
$19.89
PnL
-$0.03
Record
52%
5288-4799 (10087)
Invested
$10.02
Value
$10
PnL
-$0.02
Record
44%
1068-1376 (2444)
Invested
$9.97
Value
$9.95
PnL
-$0.03
Record
28%
2414-6144 (8558)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$4.98
Value
$4.97
PnL
-$0.01
Record
35%
2865-5318 (8183)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.