Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 17°C on November 11?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 98¢ · $42 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$42.18
-$2.01
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98.1¢ | $19.62 | $18.66 | -$0.96 | 52% 5288-4799 (10087) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $9.86 | $9.39 | -$0.47 | 44% 1068-1376 (2444) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 97.6¢ | $9.76 | $9.33 | -$0.43 | 28% 2414-6144 (8558) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $4.9 | $4.67 | -$0.23 | 35% 2865-5318 (8183) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $0.06 | $0.14 | +$0.08 | 52% 231-215 (446) |
Invested
$19.62
Value
$18.66
PnL
-$0.96
Record
52%
5288-4799 (10087)
Invested
$9.86
Value
$9.39
PnL
-$0.47
Record
44%
1068-1376 (2444)
Invested
$9.76
Value
$9.33
PnL
-$0.43
Record
28%
2414-6144 (8558)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$4.9
Value
$4.67
PnL
-$0.23
Record
35%
2865-5318 (8183)
Invested
$0.06
Value
$0.14
PnL
+$0.08
Record
52%
231-215 (446)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.