Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 16°C on November 11?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 83¢ · $81 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$80.52
-$0.89
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $29.84 | $30.55 | +$0.71 | 50% 4477-4426 (8903) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 18.6¢ | $30.17 | $28.42 | -$1.75 | 21% 133-488 (621) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $8.65 | $8.65 | +$0 | 44% 1068-1376 (2444) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $8.4 | $8.6 | +$0.2 | 28% 2405-6142 (8547) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $4.35 | $4.3 | -$0.05 | 35% 2852-5315 (8167) |
balthazar<$100Invested
$29.84
Value
$30.55
PnL
+$0.71
Record
50%
4477-4426 (8903)
Invested
$30.17
Value
$28.42
PnL
-$1.75
Record
21%
133-488 (621)
Invested
$8.65
Value
$8.65
PnL
+$0
Record
44%
1068-1376 (2444)
Invested
$8.4
Value
$8.6
PnL
+$0.2
Record
28%
2405-6142 (8547)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$4.35
Value
$4.3
PnL
-$0.05
Record
35%
2852-5315 (8167)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.