Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 14°C on November 11?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 82¢ · $39 held · ends Nov 11

Yes19¢No81¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$38.9

Combined PnL

$2.03

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$9.9

Total Shares45

Combined PnL+$0.9

No4 traders

Total Value$29

Total Shares34

Combined PnL+$1.13

Yes — 20%No — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$9	$9.9	+$0.9	21% 133-488 (621)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 80¢	$7.93	$8.46	+$0.53	52% 223-209 (432)
AL alex20011<$100	Noavg 82¢	$8.25	$8.25	+$0	44% 1068-1376 (2444)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 78¢	$7.8	$8.2	+$0.4	28% 2405-6142 (8547)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 78¢	$3.9	$4.1	+$0.2	35% 2852-5315 (8167)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$9.9

PnL

+$0.9

Record

21%

133-488 (621)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$7.93

Value

$8.46

PnL

+$0.53

Record

52%

223-209 (432)

alex20011<$100

Invested

$8.25

Value

$8.25

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

1068-1376 (2444)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$7.8

Value

$8.2

PnL

+$0.4

Record

28%

2405-6142 (8547)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$3.9

Value

$4.1

PnL

+$0.2

Record

35%

2852-5315 (8167)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.