Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 13°C on November 11?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 97¢ · $110 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$109.59
$1.12
97.1¢ → 97.4¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 96.6¢ | $53.14 | $53.98 | +$0.84 | 21% 132-485 (617) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 98.1¢ | $34.85 | $34.85 | +$0 | 51% 4240-4094 (8334) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $9.67 | $9.81 | +$0.14 | 30% 2360-5638 (7998) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $5.7 | $5.89 | +$0.19 | 90% 28-3 (31) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $4.89 | $4.91 | +$0.02 | 37% 2788-4826 (7614) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $0.39 | $0.16 | -$0.07 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
Invested
$53.14
Value
$53.98
PnL
+$0.84
Record
21%
132-485 (617)
balthazar<$100Invested
$34.85
Value
$34.85
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
4240-4094 (8334)
Invested
$9.67
Value
$9.81
PnL
+$0.14
Record
30%
2360-5638 (7998)
Invested
$5.7
Value
$5.89
PnL
+$0.19
Record
90%
28-3 (31)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$4.89
Value
$4.91
PnL
+$0.02
Record
37%
2788-4826 (7614)
Invested
$0.39
Value
$0.16
PnL
-$0.07
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.