Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 9°C on November 10?

12 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $448 held · ends Nov 10

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$447.95

Combined PnL

$1.02

Smart Money Entry

99.7¢ → 100¢

+0% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 12 top traders (100%)11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$447.95

Total Shares448

Combined PnL+$1.02

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 99.6¢	$135.2	$135.55	+$0.35	51% 4240-4094 (8334)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$78.9	$79.14	+$0.24	30% 174-414 (588)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$74.78	$74.92	+$0.15	5% 18-315 (333)
DO donthackme<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$49.85	$49.95	+$0.1	— 12-6 (18)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$21.58	$21.6	+$0.02	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$18.22	$18.25	+$0.04	35% 138-259 (397)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$17.45	$17.45	+$0	30% 2360-5638 (7998)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$14.13	$14.13	-$0	28% 153-400 (553)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$12.99	$12.99	-$0	34% 150-294 (444)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$10.33	$10.34	+$0.01	36% 462-806 (1268)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$9.91	$10.02	+$0.11	51% 197-186 (383)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$3.62	$3.62	-$0	31% 163-361 (524)

balthazar

Invested

$135.2

Value

$135.55

PnL

+$0.35

Record

51%

4240-4094 (8334)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$78.9

Value

$79.14

PnL

+$0.24

Record

30%

174-414 (588)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$74.78

Value

$74.92

PnL

+$0.15

Record

18-315 (333)

donthackme<$100

Invested

$49.85

Value

$49.95

PnL

+$0.1

Record

—

12-6 (18)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$21.58

Value

$21.6

PnL

+$0.02

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$18.22

Value

$18.25

PnL

+$0.04

Record

35%

138-259 (397)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$17.45

Value

$17.45

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

2360-5638 (7998)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$14.13

Value

$14.13

PnL

-$0

Record

28%

153-400 (553)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$12.99

Value

$12.99

PnL

-$0

Record

34%

150-294 (444)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$10.33

Value

$10.34

PnL

+$0.01

Record

36%

462-806 (1268)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$9.91

Value

$10.02

PnL

+$0.11

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$3.62

Value

$3.62

PnL

-$0

Record

31%

163-361 (524)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 12 top traders (100%)11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.